IMPACTUL CURSULUI DE SCHIMB ASUPRA CREȘTERII ECONOMICE ĪN NIGERIA (1981-2016): O ABORDARE ARDL
Autor (i): Sakiru Oladele AKINBODE, Oladapo FAPETU, Jayeola OLABISI, Olutunji Timothy OJO
JEL: F31.
Cuvinte cheie: rata de schimb, creștere economică, Nigeria.
Abstract:
The studyassessed empirically the impact of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeriafrom 1981 to 2016. Data on GDP, Exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI),inflation rate, imports, exports, trade openness, final consumption expenditure(FCE), interest rate, and government expenditure were obtained from thedifferent issues of the CBN Statistical Bulletin. Data series were assessed forstationarity with the aid of the ADF test. Bound test was conducted and themodel was estimated within the ARDL framework supported by the relevant postestimation diagnostic tests. The bound test showed that there was long runrelationship among the study variables. Model estimation revealed that import,lag of trade openness, FDI, lag of exchange rate, interest rate and inflationsignificantly affected the growth of the economy in the short run. In the longrun, economic growth was affected by trade openness, FDI, exchange rate,government expenditure and interest rate. It was concluded that the presentyear exchange rate did not affect economic growth in the short run but its oneyear lag did, while exchange rate had negative effect on the growth of theNigerian economy in the long run. To achieve growth in the economy, effectiveexchange rate management system alongside expansionary fiscal policy andencouragement of importation of capital goods are recommended.
The studyassessed empirically the impact of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeriafrom 1981 to 2016. Data on GDP, Exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI),inflation rate, imports, exports, trade openness, final consumption expenditure(FCE), interest rate, and government expenditure were obtained from thedifferent issues of the CBN Statistical Bulletin. Data series were assessed forstationarity with the aid of the ADF test. Bound test was conducted and themodel was estimated within the ARDL framework supported by the relevant postestimation diagnostic tests. The bound test showed that there was long runrelationship among the study variables. Model estimation revealed that import,lag of trade openness, FDI, lag of exchange rate, interest rate and inflationsignificantly affected the growth of the economy in the short run. In the longrun, economic growth was affected by trade openness, FDI, exchange rate,government expenditure and interest rate. It was concluded that the presentyear exchange rate did not affect economic growth in the short run but its oneyear lag did, while exchange rate had negative effect on the growth of theNigerian economy in the long run. To achieve growth in the economy, effectiveexchange rate management system alongside expansionary fiscal policy andencouragement of importation of capital goods are recommended.
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